It's been a week now since the government announced its intention to break Telecom's stranglehold on the local tele- communications infrastructure. The street parties have ended and choruses of “Ding-dong the witch is dead” faded away. But all that jubilation may have been premature. Here's why...

The government have only announced an intention to legislate.
To paraphrase an old proverb, There's many a slip 'twixt legislative intent and actual law. If you thought getting to this stage was tough, getting decent, workable legislation in place will be tougher. The lobbyists are already in place, their switches set for maximum FUD.

The legislation had better be good.
Years ago I attended a seminar by a local firm of tax accountants. They said quite publicly that there had never been a tax law that that they couldn't find a loophole in. Telecom has some very good lawyers...

Telecom will fight.
Irrespective of the legislation, Telecom won't roll over and let its tummy be tickled. They're going to fight – even if they have little chance of winning. Why would they do that? Because every year's delay brings another billion dollars profit from the existing monopoly along with the possibility of political change. This strategy worked for Microsoft in its big anti-trust case in the States. After all the court time and appeals they were still found guilty, but by then the Redmond-friendly Republicans were back in power. Instead of massive fines and a corporate break-up, all they got was a wet-bus-ticket slapping.

Telecom still have all the aces.
In l33t speak terms, the government is “0wn3d” by Telecom. Let's not forget this was supposed to be a Budget announcement that was leaked to Telecom who leaked their knowledge of it back to the government, who then had to make it public. A week on and the source of the leak is still unknown.

This wasn't some Cabinet secretary running a finger across his throat to a Telecom pal in a Lambton Quay café. This was the full deal; documents. Cabinet papers, presumably – which Telecom promptly shredded “for legal reasons”. The fact is that Telecom know what Cabinet's doing long before most of the rest of the government.

Yes, Telecom's been guilty of blindness, arrogance and hubris. Gattung will go because of it. But I don't believe the battle's over yet. It's only just begun...